11.+Our+Preventation+Strategies

= //**Banana Bunch Top Virus**// = ====Banana bunchy top disease is caused by a virus called //bunchy top bananas also known as BBTV (EMBL-EBI, 2011).// This disease can cause serious damage to banana crops and can potentially result in a total loss of bananas. This disease causes banana plants to appear bunchier than normal and eventually can result in the plant growing no fruit at all. According to Secretariat of the Pacific Community (2005), Banana bunchy top disease has been cited as causing devastating damage as early as 1889. ====

Examples of some symptoms of the BBTD disease are:

 * ====Appearance of the banana bunch looks “bunchy at the top of the plant” ====
 * ====On the midrib and leaf stem dark green streaks appear in the veins of the banana ====
 * ====The banana leafs will become crunchy and are easily snapped off ====
 * ====The root of the plant becomes decayed ====

(Jackson, 2005)
====The Island is currently being affected by this disease which will cause serious issues for the economy of the island. ====


 * //Banana Plantations on the Island // **

//﻿ // 


 * || ** Plantation **  ||  ** Location **  ||  ** Hectares **  ||
 * ** 1st Effected ** ||  C  ||  C8  ||  1.2  ||
 * ** 2nd Effected ** ||  B  ||  C7  ||  12.4  ||
 * ** 3rd Effected ** ||  E  ||  B6  ||  48.6  ||
 * ** 4th Effected ** ||  D  ||  C5  ||  35.6  ||
 * ** 5th Effected ** ||  A  ||  B4  ||  9.0  ||

//How many banana trees are there in each hectare?//

**100**m x **100**m = 10000m²

// In every hectare there is: // 1 banana tree every 3m (rows) 100 ÷ 3 = **34** trees per row

1 banana tree every 1.5m (columns) 100 ÷ 1.5 = **67** trees per column

34 x 67 = **2278** Banana Trees Per Hectare

//How many bananas trees are there in each plantation? //

Plantation A - 2278 x 9.0 = **20502** trees Plantation B - 2278 x 12.4 = **28247** trees Plantation C - 2278 x 1.2 = **2734** trees Plantation D - 2278 x 35.6 = **81097** trees Plantation E - 2278 x 48.6 = **110711** trees

//How many banana trees are there on the island? // 20502 + 28247 + 2734 + 81097 + 110711 = **243291** Banana Trees

// How many days will it take for the virus to cross the island? //
 * || **Factorial **  ||  **Equation **  ||  **Trees Effected **  ||  **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Plantations Lost **  ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 1 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">1!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">1  ||   ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 20 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">2!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 x 2 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">2  ||   ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 40 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">3!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 x 2 x 3 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">6  ||   ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 60 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">4!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">24  ||   ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 80 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">5!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">125  ||   ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 100 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">6!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">720  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">C - 2734 Trees ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 120 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">7!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">5040  || <span style="color: #000000; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">B - 30981 Trees ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 140 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">8!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">40320  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">E, D & A - 243291 Trees ||
 * **<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">Day 160 ** || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">9!  || <span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px;">1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 9 || <span style="display: block; font-family: 'arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 17px; text-align: center;">362880  ||   ||

Plantation C - **2734** trees will be lost after approx. **112** days Plantation C & Plantation B - **30981** trees will be lost after approx. **137** days Plantation C, Plantation B & Plantation E - **141692** trees will be lost after approx. **144** days Plantation C, Plantation B, Plantation E & Plantation D - **222789** trees will be lost after **153** days Plantation C, Plantation B, Plantation E, Plantation D & Plantation A- **243291** trees will be lost after **156** days

// How many days will it take for the virus to cross the plantation closest to our settlement? // **Plantation B** is the plantation closest to iPuzzle's settlement. All banana trees will be wiped out after approx **137 days**.

//<span style="color: #27aa77; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 180%;">How much money will be lost? // Every tree has one bunch of bananas weighing in at approx. 40kg Therefore there are **25** bunches per tonne Current export prices for The Island bananas are **$994**/tonne

// How many tonnes in each plantation? // Plantation C - 2734 bunches ÷ 25 = **110** tonnes Plantation B - 28247 bunches ÷ 25 = **1130** tonnes Plantation E - 110711 bunches ÷ 25 = **4429** tonnes Plantation D - 81097 bunches ÷ 25 = **3244** tonnes Plantation A - 20502 bunches ÷ 25 = **820** tonnes

//How much money in each plantation?// Plantation C - 110 tonnes x $994= **$109340** Plantation B - 1130 tonnes x $994= **$1123220** Plantation E - 4429 tonnes x $994= **$4402426** Plantation D - 3244 tonnes x $994= **$3224536** Plantation A - 820 tonnes x $994= **$815080**



// After... // **112 days** the island will lose **$109340** worth of bananas **137 days** the island will lose **$232560** worth of bananas **144 days** the island will lose **$5634986** worth of bananas **153 days** the island will lose **$8859522** worth of bananas
 * 156 ** **days** the island will lose **__$9674602__** worth of bananas



//<span style="color: #27aa77; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 180%;">What will be the likely impact on the entire economy? //

-less goods -less money -less law and order -less population -employment reduction -reduction of services -government loses power

Losing money will be the biggest impact on the economy from this banana infestation. The island will lose $9674602 worth of bananas if all of the plantations were to be wiped out completely. The loss of banana plantation also impacts the port. Losing the bananas means the island is no longer able to export these goods, which may also lose interest for traders to come to our island at all which will result in losing importing and exporting of everyday products. If the island does not have as much to export then the island will also lose imported goods coming into the island. As a result, the community fund will shrink. This will mean there is less money coming onto the island and less money being spent on the island. Less money means production will be harder to keep up and the division of money around the island slowly decreases as the individuals on the island begin to receive less and less in weekly allowances. The people of the island will begin to purchase less as they will have to cut back on spending and the prices of goods on the island will go up. Again, trade may significantly reduce as now outside traders are not only receiving a lesser amount than before but these exported items are now more expensive. This reduction of money could also impact on the social order of the island. Less money, food and goods could result in crime. It would only be a matter of time before the happy, fair and free island descends into anarchy. People will begin struggling for survival and begin to steal and fight for their own. As the economic situation get worse it is not impossible that the social order collapses all together and a new government takes over and what started out as an equal and safe economy becomes dictatorship. Population reduction may also be another impact as people begin to leave the island to live another lifestyle elsewhere, which may seem helpful as there is less to cater for, however less people will cause less employment and services.

Agricultural factors are so important to the economics of the island. You cannot have a safe and democratic government with no reasonable supply of goods and services for the population. History shows us that this could lead to drastic measures.


 * <span style="color: #000000; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 220%;">//Ecologist Questions// **

<span style="color: #ff0060; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">//What action can be taken to prevent the spread?//
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">Using the correct method to remove the infestation is important as it needs to be effective as quickly as possible. Team iPuzzle have researched some potential ways to remove the infestation from the island:


 * 1) <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;"> ‍ // Herbicide injection // - (effective in short period of time & does not affect people, the land or animals)
 * 2) <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;"> ‍ // Bananacide injection //
 * 3) <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;"> ‍ // Burning off all the crops // –(big impact on the environment and will destroy the land aswell as destroy good plants)
 * 4) <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;"> ‍ // Digging each plant out and chopping and destroying each individually // –(time consuming)

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">// How long do we have? //
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">According to the mathematical workings out from team iPuzzle it is our understanding that the whole islands banana plantation could be wiped out totally in 156 days. Prevention strategies need to begin as soon as possible on the first plantation. It would be ideal to totally kill the infestation in plantation C not only to save as much as we can but also because the next lot of banana trees (plantation B) is the closest plantation to the port.

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">// What prevention strategies can be used that have minimal impact on the environment? //
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">After research into some of the prevention strategies team iPuzzle has decided to inject Herbicide into the effected plants starting at plantation C. This was chosen as we believe it is the best strategy because it has minimal impact on the environment and isn't a long or time consuming process. Although this is a chemical injection this method does not harm the land, humans or animals. Herbicide kills the disease after 6 weeks (42 days) which gives farmers plenty of time to perform the operation before the whole of plantation C is wiped out (112 days) and before it moves onto other plantations (Nelson, 2006). The process itself may take a week or so and then another 6 weeks for all the plants to die. This also allows time for the island to import the Herbicide onto the island.

<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">//This injection involves a 5 step process://

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">**// Five Step Program (Nelson, 2006) //** <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">** Step 1. **// Spray // to kill aphids first. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">**Step 2.** //Cut off// the banana bunch. Do not chop the banana stem at this time. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">**Step 3.** Use a //screwdriver// to create a downward sloping hole in the stem at a 45 degree angle, 1 foot from ground level <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">**Step 4.** Use a //hand-pump spray bottle// containing full-strength Roundup Ultra Max. Insert the nozzle tip into the hole you createdin. Pump the handle to deliver the desired amount of product into the hole. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">**Step 5.** //Repeat// this process above for each plant in the infected mat.

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">// After this process is complete the crops and any other infected materials must be totally chopped out, destroyed and/or buried. //

<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">Before the Herbicide is imported and injected into the plants Aphid control strategies can begin; this is spraying the aphids first. It is important the aphids are killed first before injecting the plant with herbicide to reduce the risk of the disease spreading (Nelson, 2006). Aphids can be killed by insecticidal spray. Insecticidal spray can be made on the island using household goods such as detergent, soaps and oils. All of the crops can be sprayed with this (especially the first plantation). The aphids will take approximately 2 weeks before they die (Theme Koi, 2011). This process does not wipe out BBTV altogether it only kills the aphids for a short time and reduces spreading. The Herbicide is then introduced afterwards to kill the disease. With the spray and the injection on the first plantation the process is looking at taking approximately 8 weeks (57 days) which again is still enough time to have the products and materials imported and perform the procedure on the first plantation. After the spray, the injection and all the crops in plantation C are destroyed it is important that farmers on the island frequently spray all of the crops on the island, not just the bananas. Spraying the crops will prevent the aphids and the disease from returning.

<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">//**Further prevention**//- Once the plantations in the first settlement have been destroyed it is important for the island to put in place further prevention strategies to avoid having BBTV in the future such as: <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Farmers regularly spraying crops <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Introduce aphid-eating predators to the island such as ladybugs or spiders <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Have a program put in place to monitor all plants and crops <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Have supplies on the island that are needed when fighting a disease <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">-Community spraying insecticidal regularly (made from household goods) <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">(Theme Koi, 2011)

===<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">// Who might need to be warned? What do they need to be told? What are some samples of how we might communicate about the virus? // ===

<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">1. The head government needs to be aware of the disease and its effects on The Island to begin management and processes for people on The Island <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">2. The representatives from each settlement need to be informed so they can communicate with the rest of the people from their settlement about the virus and how they can help prevent the disease <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">3. The farmers need to be aware of ways to prevent the virus from continuing, how to save as much produce as possible and what else they could begin farming <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">4. The port needs to be aware of this disease as they may need to adjust what goods they are exporting and importing on to the island. Bananas may no longer be an option to export and they may need to look into what else could be exported now that bananas are becoming extinct <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">5. Other islands or countries nearby need to be aware of this disease as the trading system may have to be adjusted <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">6. Agricultural Scientists and Environmental Scientists need to be aware of the disease to begin research and assist in planning for refurnishing the plantation.

<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">**Samples of Communication** <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Head government meeting with representatives from each settlement and communicates with them the full information and prevention strategies of BBTV so all settlements can be informed <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Representatives hold meetings within their own settlements <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Making brochures/flyers for the community <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Video messages between settlements <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Information flyers sent out to other countries <span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 140%;">- Using internet and the short wave radio

// References: //

EMBL-EBI. (2011), //Banana Bunchy Top Virus.// Retrieved August 2011, from European Bioinformatics Institute: []

Jackson, G. (2005), //Banana Bunchy Top//. Retrieved August 2011, from Secretariat of the Pacific Community: http://www.spc.int/pps/PDF%20PALs/PAL%2002_Banana%20Bunchy%20Top%20reprint%202005.pdf

Nelson, S. (2006, September). //Banana Bunchy Top Disease in Hawaii//. Retrieved August 2011, from University of Hawaii: []

Koi Theme. (2011, July). //Getting rid of aphids on your Bonsai//. Retrieved August 2011, from Bonsai Tress for beginers: http://www.bonsai-trees-for-beginners.org/getting-rid-of-aphids